Bookmakers Set November Nine Odds

With the November Nine firmly set in place and the storm of the World Series of Poker calm for a few months, it’s always interesting to see how the oddsmakers view the crop of players at the biggest final table of the year. Online betting sites such as Betfair and BetUs have released their odds of each player winning the Main Event, giving poker fans and bettors alike even more reason to sweat until November.

Canadian Jonathan Duhamel will enter the Main Event final table as the chip leader and is the clear favorite by all bookmakers early on. Duhamel, 22, has 65,975,000 chips; his closest competitor is 24-year-old poker pro John Dolan, who has 46,250,000. Fellow young guns Joseph Cheong, John Racener, Matthew Jarvis and Fillipo Candio are hovering between 16 and 24 million, while established veteran Michael Mizrachi (14.5 million) is the most experienced player of the group and the favorite among many.

“As usual the final table is dominated by young online poker players from North America,” said Richard Bloch, a spokesperson for Betfair. “Duhamel is the man to beat but having seen Michael Mizrachi grind his way back from under 100K on Day 4 he is going to be tough to beat and at 8-1 looks to be amongst the favorites with our customers.”

Here’s a look at the November Nine seat draw, chip counts, and Betfair’s odds to win the 2010 WSOP Main Event (at the time of writing):

Seat 1: Jason Senti — 7,625,000 (25/1)
Seat 2: Joseph Cheong — 23,525,000 (6/1)
Seat 3: John Dolan — 46,250,000 (4.6/1)
Seat 4: Jonathan Duhamel — 65,975,000 (3.75/1)
Seat 5: Michael Mizrachi — 14,450,000 (7/1)
Seat 6: Matthew Jarvis — 16,700,000 (11.5/1)
Seat 7: John Racener — 19,050,000 (9.2/1)
Seat 8: Filippo Candio — 16,400,000 (16.5/1)
Seat 9: Soi Nguyen — 9,650,000 (18.5/1)

The lines have changed slightly since Betfair first revealed them on July 20. Duhamel opened as a 2/1 favorite and can now be found at 3.75/1, creating the biggest shift in prices. Dolan, Cheong, Mizrachi, Racener, Jarvis and Candio’s prices have fallen in the past week, while Soi Nguyen opened at 16/1 and is now at 18.5/1. Jason Senti has stayed constant at 25-1.

Last year, Darvin Moon was in a similar spot to Duhamel. Moon held a significant chip lead over the rest of the field and was a 3/1 favorite set by Betfair to win it all. Phil Ivey, despite coming into the final table short stacked, was 13/2 to win his third bracelet of the 2009 series. Eventual champion Joe Cada started play fifth in chips with 13,215,000 and opened as an 18/1 favorite to become the youngest Main Event winner ever, but many bettors jumped on that price and he slipped to 13/1 days before the final table.

In previous years, Peter Eastgate (2008) was fourth in chips coming into the final table before winning; Jerry Yang (2007) was eighth, Jamie Gold (2006) was the chip leader, and Joe Hachem (2005) was sixth. It just goes to show that anything is possible once the cards are in the air.

The 2010 World Series of Poker Main Event final table gets underway November 6 with the heads-up match concluding on November 8. The winner will receive $8,944,138.

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Poker jargon:

BRODERICK CRAWFORD - In Hold'em, hole cards of 10-4. From the 1950s TV series "Highway Patrol", starring Broderick Crawford.
EXPECTATION - The long-run [dis-]advantage of a given situation, specifically without reference to any particular outcome. I.e., what you figure to win [lose] on average after a large number of repetitions of the same situation.
COLD CALL - Calling both a bet and raise at the same time, as opposed to calling a bet then later calling a raise made after the call.
STRAIGHT - A hand consisting of 5 cards in sequence but not in suit.
DOYLE BRUNSON - In Hold'em, 10-2 in the hole. So named because Doyle Brunson won two straight WSOPs (q.v.) in 1975 and 1976 with 10-2 on the last hand. (Suited (spades) in 1975, unsuited in 1976).
IMPLIED ODDS - A refinement to POT ODDS which includes money not yet in the pot. Considers the potential extra bets and winnings made when a player forms a very good hand.

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